Week 4 Review

Iran War Tracker — Week 4: Days 22–23

Mar 21 – Mar 22, 2026 IN PROGRESS
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14
Achieved
=
27
In Progress
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61
At Risk
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28
Failing
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33
Expanding
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4
Unachievable
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0
TBD
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What Happened This Week

NOWRUZ TEST FAILED
IRIB released undated 1:19 video of Mojtaba (first extended footage) teaching religious studies in Arabic. Suspected archival. No live Nowruz address, no audio message, no appearance in official capacity. Trump: 'nobody has seen him.' Iranian envoy: 'alive and not hiding.' Security forces banned Nowruz gatherings; Chaharshanbe Suri defiance met with gunshots. Internet blackout Day 22 (~4% connectivity). Can't pay government employees.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE WAR CONTINUES
Israel struck South Pars independently; Trump told Netanyahu 'don't do that'; Netanyahu agreed to hold off. Iran retaliated on Nowruz: fresh waves at US bases + Israeli cities + Gulf energy sites (Ras Laffan, Kuwait refineries). Oil at $110+. European Council called for moratorium on energy facility strikes. Iran warned of 'zero restraint' if energy sites hit again.
DECAPITATION CONTINUES
IRGC spokesman Gen. Naeini killed March 20 (shortly after disputing Israeli claims about missile production). 5+ senior officials killed in 72 hours: Larijani (SNSC/nuclear negotiator), Khatib (Intel), Soleimani (Basij), Nasirzadeh, now Naeini. Killing Larijani closes primary diplomatic channel.
F-35 EMERGENCY LANDING
first US manned aircraft hit by suspected Iranian fire (March 19). Pilot stable. IRGC released unverified FLIR video. CENTCOM not confirming. 2,200 more Marines (11th MEU) deploying. US casualties: 13 KIA, 200+ WIA across 7 countries.
NEW ISFAHAN NUCLEAR SITE
IAEA revealed new underground enrichment facility at Isfahan (March 18). Scheduled inspection canceled. Unknown if centrifuges installed. IAEA has had zero access to any of 4 declared facilities since war started. 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium persists. E3 statement to IAEA Board on safeguards concerns.
$200B SUPPLEMENTAL STALLED
Pentagon request not yet formally submitted. GOP divided — don't have votes even within caucus. Democrats: 'Hell No.' Budget reconciliation being explored. School strike: 120+ House Democrats' letter response deadline today (March 20). Pentagon admitted 'reliance on outdated data.' Hegseth: 'no timeframe' for war.
Week 4 saw no significant goal status changes.

Prediction Scorecard

PredictionResultStatus
Nowruz Mojtaba appearanceFAILED: IRIB released undated 1:19 video (suspected archival). No live Nowruz address, no audio, no official appearance. Strongest indicator of incapacitation. Trump: 'nobody has seen him.' confirmed
School strike letter deadline (March 20)CLARIFIED: This was a letter response deadline, NOT a House floor vote. 120+ Democrats demanded answers from Hegseth. Pentagon admitted 'reliance on outdated data.' No formal response as of deadline. confirmed
Iran's Gulf energy retaliationCONFIRMED + CONTINUING: Struck all named targets March 18-19. Continuing Nowruz attacks on Gulf energy. Qatar LNG offline until June/July. Warned of 'zero restraint.' confirmed
$50B supplementalSUPERSEDED: Now $200B. Not yet formally submitted. GOP lacks votes. Reconciliation being explored. confirmed
Mojtaba physical appearance (pre-Nowruz)RESOLVED → NEW WATCH: Nowruz produced undated video only. Question now shifts to post-Nowruz proof of life. confirmed
Russian weapons escalationONGOING: Confirmed weapons supply. CENTCOM struck Caspian supply route. BM resupply still open question. ongoing
Houthi Red Sea restraintHOLDING AT 3 WEEKS: Zero commercial shipping attacks. al-Houthi: 'fingers on the trigger.' Biggest surprise of the war. Soufan Center analysis published.~ partial
Fort McNair dronesNO UPDATE: No new reporting on attribution. Item aging — may not be diagnostically significant. ongoing