| Goal | Previous | Current | Context |
|---|
| Interdict missile component supply chains | in progress | at risk expanding | Day 17: RUSSIA CONFIRMED SUPPLYING WEAPONS — Zelensky confirmed Iran using drones with 'Russian details.' Iran purchased 500 Verbas MANPADS + 2,500 9M336 infrared homing missiles from Russia (Dec 2025). Araghchi confirmed 'close cooperation including military assistance' from Russia + China. BARZIN still tracked with Chinese rocket fuel precursors. IRIAF 747 from China destroyed at Mehrabad. Supply lines active and EXPANDING from both China and Russia — air campaign destroying receiving end but source nations now providing direct weapons, not just components. |
| Destroy Iran's Missile & Drone Capability | in progress | in progress expanding | Day 21: 7,800+ TARGETS STRUCK, 8,000+ SORTIES. 'Largest strike package yet' on Day 21. 5,000-lb deep penetrators on underground coastal defense missile sites. 120+ Iranian vessels destroyed. ~70% missile launchers destroyed. But Iran sustaining 8+ BM barrages in single night at Israel — cluster/multiple-warhead missiles hitting central Israel (2 killed Ramat Gan, Savidor station). Missile crews experiencing desertions. Russia confirmed supplying Shahed components + MANPADS + satellite imagery. CENTCOM struck Caspian Sea supply route. |
| Suppress Houthi threats | at risk | at risk expanding | Day 17: HOUTHIS ATTACKED USS TRUMAN — 18 missiles + 1 UAV, all failed (11 UAVs shot down, missile fell far from ships). Announced 'ban' on US vessels entering Red Sea/Arabian Sea/Gulf of Aden. Sank 2 commercial vessels. Senior official: 'decision to stand alongside Iran already made.' Weapons stockpile reportedly low after Red Sea campaign. Not formally declaring war to maintain independence appearance. If formal entry = simultaneous Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb (~35% global maritime trade). |
| Eliminate Iran's Nuclear Weapons Capability | in progress | in progress | Day 22: NEW ISFAHAN UNDERGROUND FACILITY — IAEA revealed new site (March 18), scheduled inspection canceled. Unknown if centrifuges installed or 'empty hall.' IAEA: zero access to any of 4 declared facilities since war started. Grossi: program 'heavily damaged' but 'the material will still be there.' 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium persists in tunnels. E3 statement to IAEA Board on safeguards concerns. Arms Control Association: 'lingering nuclear risks.' IRGC spokesman killed March 20 after disputing Israeli missile production claims. Enrichment de facto suspended. |
| Destroy Isfahan uranium conversion plant | in progress | in progress | Day 21: IAEA reveals new underground enrichment site near Isfahan — cannot verify if operational. Iran's most highly enriched uranium stored in underground tunnel complex here. Strikes confirmed in Isfahan province but new facility complicates BDA. |
| Destroy mobile missile launchers | in progress | in progress | Day 15: FIRST QUANTIFICATION — Senior IDF official: 160-190 launchers destroyed, ~200 disabled, ~150 remain active. Missile crews experiencing 'desertions and refusals to follow orders.' Hegseth: missile volume down 90%, drone volume down 95%. Still hardest target class but combination of strikes + crew attrition degrading capability faster than hardware alone. |
| Regime Change / Regime Weakening | in progress failing | in progress failing | Day 22: NOWRUZ FAILED — Mojtaba produced undated video only (no live address). IRGC spokesman Naeini killed March 20. 5+ senior officials killed in 72 hours. Can't pay government employees. Internet blackout Day 22 (~4%). Chaharshanbe Suri defiance met with gunshots. ~5,000 security forces killed. 200+ arrested, 3 executed. CTP-ISW: 'disruption will not cause regime collapse without an indigenous force to exploit it.' |
| Kill IRGC senior leadership | achieved | achieved | Day 22: IRGC spokesman Gen. Naeini killed March 20 — shortly after disputing Israeli claims about missile production. 5+ senior officials killed in 72 hours: Larijani (SNSC/nuclear negotiator), Khatib (Intel), Soleimani (Basij), Nasirzadeh, Naeini. ~300 Basij field commanders eliminated. 50+ senior leaders killed total (CTP-ISW). IDF authorized kills without prior approval. CTP-ISW: strikes caused 'shock and confusion' — personnel operating from tents and under bridges. |
| Prevent regime reconstitution | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 22: NOWRUZ TEST FAILED — IRIB released undated 1:19 video (first extended footage, suspected archival) showing Mojtaba teaching in Arabic. No live Nowruz address. No audio message. No official capacity appearance. Iranian envoy: 'alive and not hiding.' Trump: 'nobody has seen him.' Security forces banned Nowruz gatherings — Chaharshanbe Suri defiance met with gunshots. Can't pay government employees. Internet blackout Day 22 (~4%). CTP-ISW: 'disruption will not cause regime collapse without an indigenous force to exploit it.' 200+ arrested, 3 executed. |
| Trigger popular uprising / revolution | at risk | at risk | Day 22: NOWRUZ DEFIANCE — Iranians lit Chaharshanbe Suri fires despite ban; security forces used gunshots to disperse crowds. State media urged burning Trump/Netanyahu effigies instead. Nowruz gatherings banned. 200+ arrested, 3 executed. Internet still at ~4%. But CTP-ISW key assessment: 'disruption will not cause regime collapse without an indigenous force to exploit it.' Regime cracking down harder but also losing capacity — security forces operating from tents/under bridges. |
| Degrade regime's internal repression capability | in progress | in progress | Day 19: BASIJ COMMAND STRUCTURE DECAPITATED — ~300 Basij commanders and field officials killed in overnight strikes on command centers, logistics hubs, and enforcement units across Tehran (Iran International). Commander Gholamreza Soleimani + deputy killed. Basij checkpoints at Enghelab Square, Kargar Street, Azadi Square, and under highway overpasses targeted. IDF struck Iranian intelligence command center co-located with electricity company compound in central Tehran. Previous: Bank Sepah + Melli struck (IRGC payroll). LEC HQs in Ilam, Tehran, Tabriz destroyed. Repression apparatus being systematically dismantled — field leadership, financial infrastructure, and command centers all targeted. |
| Destroy regime communications | in progress | in progress | Day 17: 17 DAYS OF NEAR-TOTAL BLACKOUT — connectivity at 1-4% of normal (NetBlocks). Confirmed government-imposed, not bombing damage. Worsened further March 15-16. Iranians have spent roughly one-third of 2026 in digital darkness (includes Jan blackout during protests). Communications Minister: costing economy $35.7M/day. Commercial flights still not operating out of Iran. Regime leadership still communicating — Araghchi on CBS, IRGC issuing statements. Population completely cut off. 500 arrested for sending info to adversaries. |
| Define post-war governance plan | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 22: ENDGAME FURTHER AWAY THAN EVER. Larijani (nuclear negotiator) killed — primary diplomatic channel closed. Nowruz: no Mojtaba address = no functioning interlocutor. Netanyahu signaled 'ground component' needed for regime change — 'can't do it from the air.' Trump: won't send US troops. No governance plan, no exit criteria, no mediator. Hegseth: 'no timeframe.' CTP-ISW: 'disruption will not cause regime collapse without indigenous force.' Iraq militia offered conditional ceasefire — rejected. |
| Destroy Iran's Navy & Maritime Threat | achieved failing | achieved failing | Day 21: 120+ IRANIAN NAVAL VESSELS DESTROYED. 8,000+ sorties. Continuing Hormuz operations. 2 new UKMTO merchant vessel incidents March 18-19. UN IMO started emergency talks on Middle East shipping. 6 coalition members (UK, FR, DE, IT, NL, JP) stated readiness to support Hormuz reopening. Caspian Sea strikes on Iranian navy (5+ vessels) disrupting Russia supply route. Navy 'combat ineffective' but IRGC retains asymmetric capacity — 21+ confirmed merchant ship attacks. |
| Maintain alternative export routes | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 17: FUJAIRAH HIT AGAIN — 2ND DRONE STRIKE IN 3 DAYS, OIL LOADING SUSPENDED. Fujairah handles ~1M bpd of UAE Murban crude (1% of global demand) — UAE's only export route bypassing Hormuz. Iran systematically targeting it. Dubai airport also hit — drone fire, flights temporarily suspended (Emirates resumed limited operations). Fire in Fujairah petroleum industrial zone. Previous: Salalah Oman struck, Iraq ports halted, Ruwais refinery still offline. Every bypass route under attack. Saudi East-West pipeline = only major functioning alternative. |
| Neutralize Hezbollah | in progress expanding | in progress expanding | Day 22: LEBANON — 1,001 KILLED, 1M+ DISPLACED. IDF ground ops expanding: 91st Division in, 2 more expected — largest operation since 2006. Hezbollah 'avoiding troops, hiding ammunition' but still firing ~100 rockets/day. Longest-range attack in Hezbollah history — 200km to Ashkelon. 500+ Hezbollah fighters killed. Litani bridges destroyed. 150 projectiles/day with 60% impact rate. Lebanese President renewed truce calls. Macron expressed reservations about ground ops. |
| Deter Hezbollah from entering war | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | PREDICTION MISS: Hezbollah entered Day 3. Now firing ~100 rockets/day into Israel, coordinated with Iranian barrages. IDF ground ops expanding in southern Lebanon — evacuation warnings 40+ km north, beyond Litani. |
| Clear southern Lebanon border zone | in progress | in progress | Day 17: GROUND INVASION LAUNCHED — Katz confirmed 'targeted ground operation against key targets' in southern Lebanon. Stated displaced Lebanese 'will not return home south of the Litani River' until safety guaranteed. IDF conducting overnight airstrikes in southern Beirut suburbs. Zrariyeh bridge across Litani struck (cutting south Lebanon routes). Lebanon: 850+ killed (107 children, 31 health workers), 900,000 displaced. Largest Israeli ground operation since 2006. Israeli FM Saar rejected direct talks with Lebanon while Hezbollah attacks continue. Lebanese President Aoun offered negotiations — Israel has not responded. |
| Stop rocket fire on northern Israel | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 17: HEZBOLLAH 31 ATTACKS IN 24 HOURS — 7 direct ATGM engagements with Israeli forces (highest single-day count since war began). Claimed precision missile on Palmachim Airbase (~140km from border). Targeted Rafael Advanced Defense Systems complex. Increasingly using rockets since March 12. UNIFIL peacekeepers fired upon 3 times near Bint Jbeil and Tyre. Volume and sophistication increasing even as ground invasion launches. Iran cluster munitions continuing — hit Tel Aviv, Bnei Brak, Rishon LeZion. |
| Prevent Iraqi militia activation | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 19: EMBASSY PENETRATED — drone struck inside US Embassy Baghdad compound (fire/smoke visible). 5 drones + rockets launched; C-RAM shot 2. Green Zone luxury hotel also hit. 4 killed in Jadiriyah district. CTP-ISW (March 16): 20 PMF killed/wounded at al-Qaim (18th/19th brigades), 8 Badr Organization fighters killed, 6 PMF wounded at Jurf al-Sakhr (KH facility), 3 PMF wounded near Badush Dam. 196+ drone/missile attacks on KRI since Feb 28. Militia tempo still escalating despite leadership kills (al-Askari, Day 17). |
| Minimize US Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 22: F-35 EMERGENCY LANDING — first US manned aircraft hit by suspected Iranian fire (March 19). Pilot stable. IRGC released unverified FLIR video. CENTCOM not confirming. 2,200 more Marines (11th MEU) deploying. Total: 13 KIA, 200+ wounded across 7 countries. Pentagon requesting $200B supplemental — not yet submitted. Military presented Trump daily 'escalate or exit' options — hasn't taken exit ramp. |
| Avoid targeting hospitals | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 15: PENTAGON ELEVATED INVESTIGATION — formal elevation of Minab school probe (March 13). 168 children + 14 teachers killed; Bellingcat/BBC Verify: US Tomahawk with outdated DIA coordinates. Majority of House Dem caucus demanding answers. DIA outdated intel as root cause. 25 hospitals damaged, 9 out of service. 12 medical workers killed in Israeli strike on Lebanese healthcare facility (Burj Qalawiya, March 14). 26 paramedics killed total since conflict began. |
| Minimize Israeli Civilian Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 22: Iran retaliated on Nowruz — fresh waves targeting Israeli cities (Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem). 2 wounded in Rehovot (March 20). Previous: 2 killed Ramat Gan, 4 Palestinian women killed in West Bank. Savidor station direct hits. INTERCEPTOR CRISIS: $826M emergency transfer approved. Semafor: 'critically low' on Arrow. Iran continuing 8+ BM barrages with cluster/multiple-warhead munitions. 5 missile salvos at Jerusalem in one hour (March 19). |
| Avoid War Powers Act confrontation | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 22: $200B STALLED — not yet formally submitted. GOP divided, don't have votes even within caucus. Democrats: 'Hell No.' Budget reconciliation being explored to bypass 60-vote threshold. Hegseth: 'no timeframe.' At $1B+/day burn rate. 60-day War Powers clock expires ~April 29. School strike: 120+ Democrats' letter response deadline today March 20 — Pentagon admitted 'reliance on outdated data.' IDF reservist indicted for spying for Iran. |
| Maintain Gulf state cooperation | in progress | in progress | Day 17: GULF STATES PRIVATELY PRESSING US TO 'FINISH THE JOB' — urging comprehensive degradation of Iran's military, fearing Tehran will emerge still able to threaten region (Al-Monitor/Reuters, 3 regional sources). Only one GCC Zoom call held; no Arab summit convened. UAE closed entire airspace. First confirmed UAE fatality. Qatar escalation: 14 BMs (up from drones only). But cooperation holding — no Gulf state has broken ranks. |
| Prevent Russian military support to Iran | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 17: WEAPONS THRESHOLD CROSSED — Zelensky confirmed Iran using 'Russian-produced Shahed drones with Russian details' against US bases. Iran purchased 500 Verbas MANPADS + 2,500 9M336 infrared homing missiles from Russia (December 2025). Araghchi confirmed 'close cooperation including military assistance' from Moscow. Escalation ladder now: satellite imagery → ISR → drone tactics → US positions → DIRECT WEAPONS SUPPLY. Pentagon: Iranian strikes hitting US facilities 'with a precision Tehran could not achieve alone.' Russia providing targeting intelligence for strikes. FDD: 'Russia helps Iran attack US and its allies, Ukraine helps defend them.' Moscow profiting from oil disruption while arming Iran. De facto co-belligerence. |
| Win the Information / Narrative War | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 17: FCC THREATENS BROADCASTER LICENSES — Chair Carr explicitly threatened broadcasters over negative war coverage (NPR). CENTCOM denied Iran's false-flag claim that US is attacking Gulf states with drones — called it a 'LIE.' Trump claimed Iran 'militarily defeated' and 'nothing left to target' while simultaneously requesting allied warships. Araghchi on CBS: 'neither requested ceasefire nor negotiations.' Trump calling Iran 'master of media manipulation using AI.' 53-56% of Americans oppose war. Narrative war now: domestic media suppression + foreign disinformation rebuttal + contradictory victory claims. |
| Complete operations within 4-5 weeks | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 17: TRUMP — WAR ENDS 'SOON' BUT 'PROBABLY NOT THIS WEEK.' Delayed China trip ~1 month to stay present during conflict. IDF: 'at least 3 more weeks' through Passover + contingency beyond. CENTCOM planning 100+ days. Ground invasion of Lebanon launched = new open-ended commitment. Gap between political rhetoric ('soon') and operational reality (100+ days, Lebanon ground ops) widening. $50B supplemental pending. |
| Manage Global Energy Market Impact | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 22: ENERGY WAR CONTINUES ON NOWRUZ — Israel struck South Pars independently; Trump told Netanyahu 'don't do that'; Netanyahu agreed to hold off. Iran retaliated: fresh waves at Gulf energy sites (Ras Laffan, Kuwait refineries). Oil $110+. Goldman Sachs: $100+ through 2027. European Council called for moratorium on energy facility strikes. Iran warned 'zero restraint' if energy sites hit again. Qatar Ras Laffan: 17% LNG cut, est. $20B/yr loss, potentially 5 years to recover. |
| Keep oil below $100/barrel | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 22: OIL $110+ (Brent peaked $126 per some sources). Goldman Sachs: $100+ through 2027. Israel struck South Pars independently; Trump ordered Netanyahu to stop; Netanyahu complied. Iran retaliated on Nowruz: Gulf energy sites hit again (Ras Laffan, Kuwait). European Council called for moratorium on energy facility strikes. Iran warned 'zero restraint.' Ras Laffan: 17% LNG cut, $20B/yr loss, up to 5 years to recover. Qatar = 20% global LNG. |
| Keep US gas prices manageable | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 17: GAS $3.72/GAL national avg (AAA), DIESEL NEAR $5 (+$1.34/MONTH). California $5.53, Kansas $3.15. Up ~80 cents from a month ago. Highest since Oct 2023. Summer formulation switch may push higher. Approaching $4 presidential approval-rating cliff. 53-56% oppose war. Rising fuel costs driving up food prices. War cost: ~$16.5B+ in 17 days. $50B supplemental pending. 250+ organizations calling on Congress to halt war funding. |
| Protect Gulf Allies From Iranian Retaliation | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 21: IRAN STRUCK GULF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE — Saudi SAMREF/Yanbu (Red Sea) + Jubail Petrochemical, Qatar Ras Laffan (Pearl GTL extensively damaged — LNG offline until June/July), Kuwait refineries, UAE Shah oil field + Fujairah. Qatar expelled all Iranian military/security attachés (March 18). Saudi FM: trust 'completely shattered.' UAE: attacks 'will drive Gulf into Israeli arms.' Kuwait foiled Hezbollah sabotage plot (14 Kuwaitis + 2 Lebanese). British Airways suspended Doha flights through April 30. Iran's retaliation BACKFIRED diplomatically — strengthened coalition instead of fracturing it. |
| Maintain Gulf air defense effectiveness | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 19: UAE CUMULATIVE — 314 BMs + 15 CRUISE + 1,672 DRONES INTERCEPTED (2,001 total projectiles). Rates holding but volume enormous. Qatar: 14 BMs on March 17 (13 intercepted, 1 uninhabited) — escalation from drone-only. Saudi: 7 drones intercepted Eastern Province. Kuwait: 4 hostile drones detected, 1 destroyed. Bahrain: Neutralized 129 missiles + 221 drones cumulative. CENTCOM denied Iran's false-flag claim (US attacking Gulf states) — called it a 'LIE.' Interceptor sustainability remains the critical question — 'years of production shot in days.' |
| Protect Gulf energy infrastructure | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 17: FUJAIRAH OIL PORT HIT 2ND TIME IN 3 DAYS — fire in petroleum industrial zone from drone strike, oil loading suspended again. Handles ~1M bpd of UAE Murban crude (1% of global demand) — UAE's only Hormuz bypass route. Dubai airport drone fire, flights suspended. Iran SYSTEMATICALLY targeting Gulf bypass infrastructure. Previous: Ruwais refinery (922K bbl/day) still offline, Bahrain Bapco force majeure, Kuwait airport fuel tanks, Saudi refineries. Possible refinery hit elsewhere — witnesses reported 'smell of oil in air' after strikes (OSINT @Vahid). ~9M+ bbl/day off market. |