| Goal | Previous | Current | Context |
|---|
| Destroy mobile missile launchers | in progress | in progress | Day 15: FIRST QUANTIFICATION — Senior IDF official: 160-190 launchers destroyed, ~200 disabled, ~150 remain active. Missile crews experiencing 'desertions and refusals to follow orders.' Hegseth: missile volume down 90%, drone volume down 95%. Still hardest target class but combination of strikes + crew attrition degrading capability faster than hardware alone. |
| Prevent regime reconstitution | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 15: HEGSETH — MOJTABA 'WOUNDED AND LIKELY DISFIGURED.' State Dept offered $10M reward for information on Khamenei and other top officials. Clerics Hejazi/Arafi pushing for leadership council. Still NO public appearance. Iranian state media called him 'janbaz' (disabled veteran term). OPPOSITION: Reza Pahlavi (exiled shah's son) claims he has identified individuals for transitional government (ToI). Israel: Netanyahu says creating 'optimal conditions for toppling the regime.' Senior military official: post-war = 'weakened regime, economic blockade, diplomatic isolation, and eventually a revolution.' |
| Destroy Iran's Navy & Maritime Threat | achieved failing | achieved failing | Day 15: 90+ VESSELS DAMAGED/DESTROYED — KHARG ISLAND MILITARY STRUCK. US struck 90 military targets on Kharg Island overnight (Iran's #1 oil export hub): naval mine storage, missile bunkers, airbase runway cratered, air defense, IRGC sites. Oil infrastructure deliberately spared — Trump warned it becomes target if Hormuz stays blocked. All 4 Soleimani-class destroyed (Janes). 30+ minelayers destroyed. Navy declared 'combat ineffective.' But IRGC retains asymmetric capacity — 19+ commercial ships attacked, mines still being laid. |
| Neutralize Hezbollah | in progress expanding | in progress expanding | Day 15: LARGEST GROUND INVASION SINCE 2006 PLANNED. Israel planning massive operation to seize all territory south of Litani River — 3 armored/infantry divisions on border, reserves mobilizing, 7-8 km buffer zone + 20 outposts planned (Axios). Triggered by record 200+ rocket barrage March 13. IDF struck Hezbollah financial network — destroyed 30 al Qard al Hassan locations; organization halted ops. Radwan Force Commander Abu Ali Rayyan + IRGC-Hezbollah BM coordinator Abu Dhar Mohammadi killed. Weapons expert Morteza Hussein Sorour killed near Beirut campus. Amal Movement broke with Hezbollah. Lebanon: 773 killed (103 children), 830,000 displaced. |
| Clear southern Lebanon border zone | in progress | in progress | Day 15: MASSIVE GROUND INVASION PLANNED — LARGEST SINCE 2006. Israel planning to seize all territory south of Litani River (Axios confirmed). 3 armored/infantry divisions on border, reserves mobilizing. 7-8 km buffer zone + 20 outposts planned. Triggered by Hezbollah's record 200+ rocket barrage. Trump admin asked Israel to spare Beirut airport; Israel agreed on airport but not other state infrastructure. 12 medical workers killed in IDF strike on healthcare facility in Burj Qalawiya (March 14). Lebanon: 773 killed (103 children, 26 paramedics), 830,000 displaced. |
| Stop rocket fire on northern Israel | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: IRAN FIRES CLUSTER MUNITIONS AT ISRAEL — ballistic missile with cluster bomb warhead hit Shoham (building fire) + Rishon Lezion (highway/car damage). New weapons escalation. Fresh wave hit northern Israel March 14 morning — 2 injured, buildings damaged. Missiles also targeted Jerusalem + Eilat. Previous day: 200+ rockets in 24 hours (war record), targeting Unit 8200 HQ (Glilot, 110km), Shayetet 13 (Atlit), Rafael complex (Acre). Hezbollah claimed 25 attacks March 13. Volume increasing even as leadership decimated. |
| Suppress Houthi threats | at risk | at risk | DAY 15 SILENCE — LONGEST NON-ENTRY OF ANY PROXY. Zero confirmed Houthi strikes in 15 days. Leader al-Houthi: 'hands on the trigger whenever developments require.' Restraint influenced by 2025 US-Houthi ceasefire + fear of Israeli decapitation strikes. Iran's military degradation makes weapons pipeline less viable. Strategic calculation to preserve position rather than fight for weakening patron. |
| Minimize US Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: ALL 6 KC-135 CREW CONFIRMED DEAD — CENTCOM confirmed full crew loss (March 14). US KIA now 13 total (7 hostile fire + 6 KC-135 crash). France: 1 KIA (CWO Frion) + 6 wounded in Erbil drone attack — first non-US coalition military death. ~140 US wounded total, 108 returned to duty, 8 severe. WaPo: US has burned 'years' of key munitions, especially Tomahawks. $50B supplemental requested. 4 manned aircraft lost in 15 days. |
| Minimize Iranian Civilian Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: IDF ESTIMATES 4,000-5,000 IRANIAN SOLDIERS KILLED. Iran Health Ministry: 1,444 killed, 18,551 injured. HRANA independent: 1,825 killed (1,276 civilians). NPR 2-week assessment: 2,000+ killed across Iran + Lebanon combined. IDF military casualty estimate far exceeds Health Ministry civilian count — total Iranian dead likely 5,000-6,500+. 3.2M displaced. 25 hospitals damaged, 9 out of service. Lebanon: 773 killed (103 children, 26 paramedics). Pentagon elevated Minab school investigation — acknowledging likely US responsibility. |
| Avoid targeting hospitals | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 15: PENTAGON ELEVATED INVESTIGATION — formal elevation of Minab school probe (March 13). 168 children + 14 teachers killed; Bellingcat/BBC Verify: US Tomahawk with outdated DIA coordinates. Majority of House Dem caucus demanding answers. DIA outdated intel as root cause. 25 hospitals damaged, 9 out of service. 12 medical workers killed in Israeli strike on Lebanese healthcare facility (Burj Qalawiya, March 14). 26 paramedics killed total since conflict began. |
| Minimize Israeli Civilian Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: CLUSTER MUNITIONS ON ISRAEL — Iran fired BM with cluster bomb warhead; submunitions hit Shoham (building fire) + Rishon Lezion (highway/car damage). New weapons escalation. Fresh wave hit northern Israel March 14 morning — 2 injured, buildings damaged. Missiles targeted Jerusalem + Eilat. 15 Israeli civilians killed, 2,975+ injured cumulative. BM launches down 90% but weapons sophistication increasing — cluster warheads represent adaptation as volume declines. |
| Manage Global Energy Market Impact | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: EXTREME VOLATILITY — Oil swung $67 → $119.50 peak → $97-100. IEA released record 400M barrels (US: 172M from SPR). War cutting ~8M bbl/day. Kharg Island military struck but oil infrastructure spared — Trump explicitly linking oil to escalation. Iran selectively opening Hormuz (Turkey, India, Saudi) while blocking Western ships. Gas: $3.48-3.63 nationally, CA $5.20. War cost: $16.5B in 12 days. $50B supplemental. Iran still exporting 2.1M bbl/day through Strait. Trump eased Russian oil sanctions temporarily. |
| Keep US gas prices manageable | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: GAS $3.48-3.63/GAL national avg — up 48-55 cents from $2.98 pre-war (+16-20%). California $5.20, Washington $4.63. Still approaching $4 presidential approval-rating cliff. 56% of Americans oppose the war. War cost: ~$16.5B in first 12 days ($1.4B/day). $50B supplemental requested. 250+ organizations calling on Congress to halt war funding. Summer blend switchover imminent. Indian airlines raising ticket prices on aviation fuel costs. |
| Protect Gulf Allies From Iranian Retaliation | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 15: IRGC FORMALLY THREATENS UAE — declares US 'hideouts' in UAE are 'legitimate targets' after Kharg strike. Urged civilians to evacuate ports, docks, and US military shelters. Australia ordered non-essential officials to leave UAE + Israel. Qatar: 14 BMs + 4 drones fired (13 BMs + all drones intercepted). Saudi Arabia: 50+ drones in surge. Dubai Financial Center struck by drone (geolocated footage confirmed). Gulf states now directly threatened with escalation beyond existing attacks. |