| Goal | Previous | Current | Context |
|---|
| Prevent Chinese military support to Iran | in progress | at risk expanding | Day 9: CHINA DECLARES SUPPORT FOR IRAN. Wang Yi: supports Iran 'defending its sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and national dignity.' Warned against 'colour revolution' or government change: 'will find no popular support.' UNVERIFIED REPORTS: China secretly supplied $5B in weapons including HQ-16B SAMs, FN-6 MANPADS, HQ-9B anti-ballistic systems, CM-302 anti-ship missiles, Sunflower-200 kamikaze drones (not confirmed by Western officials). Previous: IRIAF 747 cargo from China destroyed at Mehrabad. IRISL ships with BM components from Chinese ports. Moving from rhetorical support to declarative backing + unverified material support. |
| Prevent attacks on US homeland | in progress | at risk expanding | FIRST PHYSICAL ATTACKS ON US/ALLIED FACILITIES IN EUROPE: Oslo — explosion at US embassy compound (~1am Mar 7), hit consular section entry point, minor damage, no injuries. NYC — incendiary device near Gracie Mansion during anti-Muslim protest (2 arrested). Previous: Texas shooting (man with Iran flag), Asif Merchant conviction (pre-war IRGC assassination plot). DHS Noem: terrorism risk 'elevated.' Threat now materializing outside Middle East — Oslo attack represents geographic expansion of anti-US violence. No mass-casualty event yet but pattern escalating. |
| Prevent future breakout capability | tbd | in progress | GROUND OPTION UNDER DISCUSSION: Axios (Mar 8): US and Israel actively discussing sending special forces to seize 450 kg of 60%-enriched uranium at a 'later stage.' Two options: (a) remove material entirely, (b) dilute on-site with nuclear experts + possibly IAEA. Material enough for ~11 bombs if enriched to 90%. Would involve special operators alongside scientists. Challenges: locating stockpile under blackout + establishing physical control. This would be the first US ground operation inside Iran and the most consequential nonproliferation action since Iraq. Even if facilities destroyed, Iran retains knowledge + can rebuild — but seizing the fissile material itself addresses the immediate breakout timeline. |
| Interdict missile component supply chains | tbd | in progress | CHINESE SUPPLY LINE EXPOSED: IRIAF 747 cargo from Gaolan (Chinese chemical storage port) destroyed at Mehrabad. Two IRISL-sanctioned cargo ships departed China carrying BM program components. Intel suggests China may provide sodium perchlorate (propellant). Air campaign destroying receiving end — but supply source (China) untouched. Destruction of 747 at Mehrabad = interdiction by destruction of delivery vehicle, not supply chain. |
| Prevent regime reconstitution | at risk | at risk failing | Day 10: CONTRADICTORY SIGNALS — Hezbollah pledged allegiance to Mojtaba (consolidation). BUT 'Death to Mojtaba' protests reported in Tehran (Iran Intl, UNVERIFIED by AFP). If protests confirmed, succession legitimacy is contested from below despite institutional loyalty from above. Previous: Mojtaba formally named 3rd Supreme Leader by Assembly of Experts. IRGC pledged 'complete obedience.' Regime reconstituted apex leadership under fire — but popular acceptance uncertain. |
| Install moderate / pro-Western successor | at risk | at risk failing | MOJTABA FORMALLY INSTALLED — HARDLINE SUCCESSION COMPLETE: Assembly named Mojtaba under IRGC pressure. Trump: 'a lightweight' who 'won't last long without US approval.' Israeli Ambassador Leiter outlined vision of 'transitional government' with US-Israeli guidance before elections. But Mojtaba IS the leader now — IRGC pledged allegiance. If US won't accept him and can't remove him militarily, the moderate-successor goal requires either regime collapse or negotiated transition. Neither imminent. NIC classified assessment: regime 'unlikely' to fall from bombing alone. |
| Suppress Houthi threats | at risk expanding | at risk | DAY 10 SILENCE CONTINUES: Despite rhetoric ('hands on the trigger'), zero confirmed Houthi strikes. Each day of non-entry = strategic win for coalition. Iran's military degradation makes weapons pipeline less viable. Stimson: cost-benefit shifting as Iran weakens. Key question remains: do Houthis join a losing fight or preserve their position? 10 days of restraint suggests the latter. |
| Keep oil below $100/barrel | at risk expanding | at risk failing | Day 10: MONDAY PANIC — WTI spiked ~$119/bbl intraday (first full trading day since $100 breach), settled ~$109.30. Brent tracking similar. Sunday open was $103.93; Monday institutional trading amplified as predicted. US 'dismayed' Israel struck 30 oil depots exceeding bilateral agreement — first public crack in targeting coordination. Bahrain Bapco declared force majeure = another Gulf producer offline. Global markets crashed: Kospi -8% (worst since 2020), Nikkei -7%, TA-125 -3.4%. $4 gas now imminent at $109 oil. Qatar $150 warning looking less extreme by the day. |
| Prevent Iraqi oil shutdown | at risk expanding | at risk failing | COLLAPSE ACCELERATING: Iraqi southern oilfield production down 70% to 1.3M bpd (from ~4.5M). No export route via Hormuz. Rumaila + other major fields shuttering as storage fills. Kurdistan also under attack: 196 drone/missile attacks on KRI since Feb 28, 2+ killed in Erbil/Sulaimani. Iraq becoming a secondary economic casualty — revenue crisis could change calculus on allowing US basing. |
| Maintain Gulf air defense effectiveness | at risk expanding | at risk failing | INTERCEPTOR DEPLETION CRISIS DEEPENING: UAE Day 9: 17 BMs (16 intercepted), 117 drones (113 intercepted). CUMULATIVE since Feb 28: 205 BMs + 1,184 drones launched at UAE alone. Kuwait dealt with 394 drones + 212 missiles total. US 'stonewalling' replenishment. 'Several years of production shot in days.' UKRAINE COUNTER-DRONE EXPERTS DEPLOYING: Zelensky confirmed specialists will be 'on site' in Middle East next week — Ukraine intercepts ~90% of Russian Shaheds, Gulf states requested expertise. THAAD radar sites damaged. Rates holding 90%+ but STOCKS unsustainable — the critical near-term vulnerability. |
| Destroy Iran's Missile & Drone Capability | in progress | in progress | BIFURCATED: Missiles down 90%, drones down 83% (CENTCOM Cooper). BUT drone volume SURGING — UAE D8: 121 drones (119 intercepted). IDF: ~3,400 strikes, ~7,500 munitions. CENTCOM: 3,000+ targets. 100-200 missile launchers estimated remaining. 6 defense industrial sites struck D8 (DIO, Shiraz Electronics). Phase 2 targeting underground BM bunkers + defense industrial base. First combat use of PrSM confirmed. Oil infrastructure now targeted (3 Tehran depots). Campaign succeeding against missiles, struggling against drones. |
| Destroy fixed missile launch sites | in progress | in progress | Day 8 evening: IDF ~3,400 strikes, ~7,500 munitions total. 6 defense industrial sites struck D8 (DIO, Shiraz Electronics Industries). 2 Artesh airbases in Esfahan Province struck. 16 IRGC aircraft destroyed at Isfahan. Heydar Karrar missile base (Absard) struck — satellite confirmed. BM production at Shahrud hit. Ali Asghar Hejazi (Khamenei deputy CoS) targeted. 100-200 launchers estimated remaining. UAE BM data: D1:137, D2:28, D3:9, D4:12, D5:3, D6:7, D7:9. B-2s dropping 2,000lb penetrators. First combat use of PrSM confirmed by CENTCOM. |
| Destroy missile production facilities | in progress | in progress | PRODUCTION CHAIN UNDER SYSTEMATIC ATTACK: Parchin (SE Tehran) + Shahroud missile production struck — Shahroud responsible for 'significant portion of missiles fired at Israel and region.' Raja Shimi propellant plant on fire (satellite imagery — produces explosives/rocket propellants, historically accused of chem/bio). Engine mixing/casting facility + advanced cruise missile R&D/assembly complex struck. Jahan Electric Industrial Park (Yazd): launchers hidden among heavy trucks at cargo terminal. 6 DIO sites hit. Shokouhiyeh (Qom) drone production struck. Cooper: 'systematically dismantle.' Iran dispersed production but key nodes being degraded. |
| Destroy drone production & launch sites | in progress | in progress | Day 9: CLUSTER BOMB WARHEADS USED — Iran fired suspected cluster munition at central Israel, scattering submunitions across Tel Aviv/Petah Tikva (6 wounded, 1 serious). IRGC: '27th wave of Operation True Promise.' UAE D9: 117 drones (113 intercepted). CUMULATIVE at UAE: 1,184 drones since Feb 28. Drones down 83% but volume still high + weapons sophistication escalating (cluster munitions). CENTCOM issued civilian warning — Iran using populated areas in Dezful, Esfahan, Shiraz as launch sites. Drone factories distributed + harder to eliminate. |
| Destroy missile command & control | in progress | in progress | Day 8 evening: IRGC Air Force central air defense command center struck in central Tehran plus air defense systems, HQs, warehouses. 12 BM salvos in 24 hours = staggered strategy (every 1-2 hours) to strain interception + keep millions in shelters. IDF: reflects degraded capability to coordinate large barrages. Ali Asghar Hejazi (Khamenei's most powerful intel official) targeted in Tehran. C2 fragmented but functioning — Iran adapting to distributed, small-salvo attacks. |
| Break IRGC institutional cohesion | at risk | at risk | Day 9 Evening: IRGC CLOSES RANKS BEHIND MOJTABA — pledged 'complete obedience and self-sacrifice' within hours of succession announcement. No visible cracks. Earlier Pezeshkian-IRGC split now RESOLVED in IRGC's favor: civilian government marginalized, military authority superseding presidential authority. Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf states and pledged halt — IRGC ignored him, strikes continued. Mohseni-Ejei: 'intense attacks would continue.' IRGC claims '6-month readiness.' Zero defections inside Iran. 5 Quds Force commanders killed in Ramada Hotel strike (Lebanon). Several dozen IRGC officers fleeing Lebanon. Pattern: IRGC consolidating domestically while fracturing abroad. |
| Trigger popular uprising / revolution | at risk | at risk | CONTRADICTORY SIGNALS DEEPENING: NCRI (opposition) reports 'organized uprising across most cities in Iran' — images of bodies in warehouses/morgues. References January 2026 protests where 'thousands died.' BUT: regime issuing shoot-to-kill orders. IRGC commander: fatal consequences for anyone expressing sympathy with enemy. Mass text surveillance. Basij armed checkpoints around bombed bases. Internet at 1% for 120+ hours. Netanyahu's 'enable change' statement explicitly ties military campaign to uprising goal. Sistan-Baluchistan insurgency continuing. Key question: are NCRI reports reflecting ground reality or aspirational opposition framing? |
| Degrade regime's internal repression capability | in progress | in progress | Day 8: SYSTEMATIC DEGRADATION of internal security. 9 of 23 Basij regional bases in Tehran now targeted (9th, 10th, 11th hit D8). LEC provincial HQs struck in Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Ilam. Kamyaran police station destroyed. IRGC intelligence + Sepah buildings struck in Ilam. Law Enforcement + Criminal Investigation destroyed in Urmia. BUT regime compensating with escalated violence: IRGC commander Velayatmadar: 'anyone who lets a sound out... order to shoot issued.' Police chief Radan: shoot 'thieves' on sight. NCRI reports 'organized uprising across most cities' — images of bodies in warehouses. Infrastructure degrading but repression intensifying. |
| Define post-war governance plan | at risk failing | at risk failing | CLASSIFIED INTEL vs MAXIMALIST RHETORIC: WaPo: classified US intelligence report predicts regime 'unlikely' to be ousted by military campaign. Meanwhile Netanyahu announces 'second stage' with 'many surprises' to 'destabilize the regime, enable change' and 'eradicate the Iranian regime.' Trump: Mojtaba 'unacceptable,' wants to choose Iran's next leader. Pezeshkian: 'unconditional surrender is a dream they must take to the grave.' IRGC claims 6-month readiness. The gap between intelligence assessments and public rhetoric is now documented — classified reports contradicting public demands. No governance framework. IDF assessment: war could last 'several more weeks.' |
| Keep Hormuz open during operations | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 9: NEAR-TOTAL SHUTDOWN — only 3 vessel crossings on March 7 (1 inbound, 2 outbound), down 97.8% from historical average of ~138/day. 44% of transiting vessels carry elevated compliance risk (shadow fleet, Iran-linked). 11 vessels struck since war began. 1,650+ vessels experienced GPS/AIS interference March 7 (55% increase week-over-week). 30+ jamming clusters. P&I insurers issued 72-hour cancellation notices. Some coverage unavailable at any price. Evergreen/Maersk/CMA CGM/Hapag-Lloyd/Cosco all froze bookings. Iran's Kharg Island exports remain active (tankers at berth). Strait is market-constrained — insurance, not just military threats, is the primary barrier. |
| Prevent global energy crisis | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 10: CRISIS DEEPENING — WTI spiked ~$119 intraday Monday, settled ~$109.30. Kospi -8% (worst since 2020), Nikkei -7%. Bahrain Bapco force majeure = another Gulf producer offline. ~9M bbl/day off market. Qatar $150 warning increasingly credible. EU TTF gas still elevated. Gold record. Supertanker rates record. The question is no longer 'will there be a crisis' but 'how deep and how long.' |
| Achieve & Maintain Air Superiority Over Iran | achieved | achieved | FULL-SPECTRUM AIR DOMINANCE: Day 9: F-14 FLEET DESTROYED — strike on 8th TFB Isfahan (81st, 82nd, 83rd TFS) believed to eliminate all remaining operational F-14 Tomcats worldwide. IRGC Space & Satellite HQ struck in Tehran (reception, transmission, research center). 50 ammunition bunkers at internal security base destroyed. Netanyahu: 'almost complete control over Iranian skies.' Previous: ~50 IAF jets dropped ~100 bombs destroying Khamenei's underground bunker. B-2 Spirits engaged (PETRO41-44). Mehrabad: 12+ aircraft destroyed incl. IRIAF 747 from China. 150+ air defense systems destroyed. B-1Bs at Fairford. CENTCOM issued formal civilian safety warning — Iran using populated areas in Dezful, Esfahan, Shiraz for launches. |
| Neutralize Hezbollah | in progress expanding | in progress expanding | Day 10: HEZBOLLAH PLEDGED ALLEGIANCE TO MOJTABA — consolidating under new Supreme Leader, not fracturing. 2 more IDF soldiers killed in Lebanon (Staff Sgt. Or Demry, 20) — 4 IDF KIA total since fighting restarted. Previous: 5 IRGC Quds commanders killed in Ramada Hotel, ~200 operatives killed, 600+ strikes. Quds Force Lebanon Corps decapitated but Hezbollah ground forces still lethal. Lebanon: ~394+ dead, 500K+ displaced. Hezbollah retaining combat capability despite massive leadership losses — institutional loyalty transferring to Mojtaba. |
| Prevent Iraqi militia activation | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 8: Islamic Resistance claimed 27 operations (up from 23+) — tempo increasing. Parliament + president rejected 'any use of territory to attack neighboring states' but militias ignoring. Iran striking Kurdish positions ON IRAQI SOIL. Unknown forces landed Anbar Province near Saudi border (CTP-ISW). PMF fighters killed at Jurf al-Sakhar. Baghdad International Airport targeted by drones. Iraq being used as battlefield by both sides while government protests neutrality. |
| Minimize US Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 10: 8th US death reported (Al Jazeera) — NOT yet confirmed by CENTCOM. If confirmed: 8 KIA, 18+ seriously wounded in 10 days. Previous 7 KIA confirmed. US diplomatic evacuation from Saudi ongoing. Force protection failing across the theater — Pentagon admitted 'can't stop the drones.' |
| Minimize Iranian Civilian Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 8 evening: Iran 1,332+ dead, 181 children (UNICEF), 6,668 civilian units targeted (Red Crescent). Lebanon: 294 dead (up from 217), 1,023 wounded, 300,000+ displaced (NRC). 330,000+ displaced across Middle East (UN total). 28,000+ American citizens evacuated. Nabi Chit: 41 killed (incl. 3 Lebanese soldiers). Dubai airport struck. First oil infrastructure strikes in Tehran = civilian energy infrastructure now targeted. 3 UNIFIL peacekeepers wounded. Toll documented by UNICEF, OHCHR, WHO, Red Crescent — permanent accountability record. |
| Maintain Alliance Cohesion | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 10: US-ISRAEL FRICTION OVER OIL STRIKES — US 'dismayed' Israel hit 30 oil depots, exceeding bilateral agreement. First public crack in war management. Turkey intercepted Iranian BM, deployed F-16s to N. Cyprus. Macron in Cyprus. Alliance growing militarily (Turkey now intercepting) but political coherence fracturing — Spain protests, Italy criticism, US-Israel disagreement. Zelenskyy: 11 countries requesting counter-drone expertise. |
| Maintain NATO unity | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 10: TURKEY INTERCEPTS IRANIAN BM over eastern Mediterranean — deployed F-16s to Northern Cyprus after Shahed drone struck RAF Akrotiri. NATO member now actively shooting down Iranian ordnance. Macron in Cyprus post-Akrotiri strike. Zelensky: 11 countries requesting Ukraine counter-drone expertise. Article 5 implications: Rutte previously ruled it out, but Turkey intercepting missiles changes the calculus. 7+ NATO nations with assets deployed. Military expanding while political fractures deepen — Spain anti-war protests, Italy says US-Israel 'violated international law.' |
| Maintain basing rights across region | in progress | in progress | BASING EXPANDING BUT TRUMP REJECTING ALLIES: 4 B-1Bs at RAF Fairford (3 arrived post-mission from CONUS). UK authorized Fairford + Diego Garcia + Cyprus. BUT: Trump rejected UK HMS Prince of Wales carrier — 'We don't need them any longer,' 'we don't need people that join Wars after we've already won.' Significant diplomatic rift with closest ally. UK still sending Typhoons to Qatar + helicopters to Cyprus despite rebuff. $151.8M emergency arms sale. Iran threatened European basing nations as 'legitimate targets.' Basing architecture expanding while Trump simultaneously antagonizing the allies providing it. |
| Prevent Russian military support to Iran | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | DE FACTO CO-BELLIGERENCE CONFIRMED BY MULTIPLE US OFFICIALS: Russia providing Iran satellite imagery showing 'locations and movements of US troops, ships, and aircraft' — described as 'comprehensive effort.' Iran has limited military satellites; Russian data filling critical ISR gap for targeting US radar systems and command facilities. CNA analyst: imagery allows Iran to 'temporarily halt/disrupt airfield ops or harass base personnel.' Hegseth response: 'tracking everything.' WH downplayed: 'clearly not making any difference.' 6 US KIA in Kuwait — unclear if linked to Russian targeting data. Kremlin reporting 'significant increase in demand' for Russian energy = profiting from war. Peskov: weapons NOT requested — yet. Key threshold: weapons resupply as missile stocks deplete. |
| Control Minab school narrative | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 9: CNN ANALYSIS SAYS US RESPONSIBLE — evidence suggests US struck Minab school (168 killed). School was formerly part of IRGC naval base compound, separated 2013-2016. US likely failed to update targeting data. UNESCO: 'grave violation of humanitarian law.' HRW: war crimes investigation demanded. Al Jazeera investigation: targeting likely 'deliberate.' CENTCOM investigation ongoing — neither confirmed nor denied. Trump claimed Iran bombed school — own government's findings contradict. Second school hit (Tehran Niloufar Square). Pattern established. Narrative moved from 'fog of war' to documented targeting failure with legal liability. |
| Counter Araghchi's information campaign | at risk failing | at risk failing | Day 10: IRAN FORMALLY REJECTS CEASEFIRE — Araghchi on NBC Meet the Press: 'We need to continue fighting for the sake of our people.' Demands 'permanent end to war,' not temporary halt. Said US-Israel 'shattered the ceasefire reached to end last year's 12-day war.' With US demanding 'unconditional surrender' and Iran rejecting ceasefire, both sides have publicly closed the diplomatic off-ramp. Araghchi outperforming US messaging internationally. |
| Control narrative inside Iran | in progress | in progress | Day 9: SATELLITE SIGNAL JAMMING CONFIRMED — government using military-grade mobile jammers to block satellite internet. Telcos threatening users who try to connect to global internet with LEGAL ACTION. Internet at 1% for 9 days. Economic cost: $35.7M/day (Iran's own Communications Minister). State broadcaster struck in Tabriz and Sanandaj but regime still communicating — Assembly of Experts held virtual vote, pro-regime rally in Tehran. Population completely cut off AND now legally threatened for trying. |
| Control War Scope & Duration | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | SCOPE EXPANDING ON EVERY AXIS: Day 8 added new target category (oil infrastructure — first time). Netanyahu announces 'second stage' with 'many surprises.' B-1B bombers to UK = firepower surge incoming. ~3,400 Israeli strikes / ~7,500 munitions. Classified intel says regime 'unlikely' to fall — yet rhetoric demands 'unconditional surrender.' IRGC claims 6-month readiness. Iran-Azerbaijan ultimatum. Pezeshkian ceasefire offer to neighbors collapsed within 1 hour. White House projects 4-6 weeks. CSIS: $891M/day. Scope, duration, cost, and theaters all growing simultaneously. |
| Complete operations within 4-5 weeks | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | SEVEN TIMELINES: Israel 2 weeks. Trump 4-5 weeks. Hegseth 8 weeks. CENTCOM 100 days. Trump 'no time limits.' White House projects 4-6 weeks. IRGC claims '6-month readiness.' Haaretz/IDF: 'several more weeks unless Trump abruptly halts.' CSIS: $891M/day ($3.7B-$5.8B first 100 hours). Operation Epic Fury cost virtually none budgeted. Netanyahu announcing 'second stage' = extending not concluding. B-1B deployment to UK = preparing for sustained campaign. |
| Limit conflict to Iran bilateral | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 10: TURKEY NOW A COMBATANT — intercepted Iranian BM over eastern Mediterranean, deployed F-16s to Northern Cyprus. Shahed drone struck RAF Akrotiri (British base in Cyprus). Macron visiting Cyprus. War now touching 12+ countries + European airspace. Previous: Oslo embassy explosion, B-1Bs from UK, Iran threatened European basing nations. Every new theater = harder to close. Target categories, geographic theaters, and participating nations all still growing on Day 10. |
| Prevent European gas crisis | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | SHARPEST SHOCK SINCE 2022: Dutch TTF gas futures hit EUR 50/MWh — up 60% since Strait closed. QatarEnergy's 77M t/yr Ras Laffan facility (world's largest LNG) halted since Mar 2. Qatar Energy Minister: even if war ended immediately, recovery would take 'weeks to months.' Oxford Economics: eurozone inflation +0.3-0.5pp to ~2.3%. European Stoxx 600 continued decline. 2022 Russia crisis comparison now concrete — same mechanism (supply cutoff), different source. |
| Protect Gulf energy infrastructure | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 10: BAHRAIN BAPCO FORCE MAJEURE — refinery operations halted indefinitely after Iranian strikes. 32 injured at Sitra including 2-month-old baby. Water + oil infrastructure now both targeted. US 'dismayed' Israel hit 30 oil depots (exceeding bilateral agreement). Previous: desalination plant, Kuwait airport fuel tanks, Saudi refineries all struck. Energy war fully bilateral. ~9M bbl/day off market. |
| Protect Gulf civilian populations | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | Day 10: BAHRAIN SITRA STRIKES — 32 injured including 2-month-old baby. Gulf casualties mounting across 6+ countries. UAE: 4 dead, 112+ injured. Saudi: 2 foreign nationals killed. Kuwait: 2 border officers killed. Bahrain: desalination plant + Bapco refinery + Sitra residential. Qatar: 1 Pakistani killed. Jordan: 60 missiles + 59 UAVs since war start. War affecting daily life in 9+ countries. 52,000+ Indians evacuated. Infant casualty underscores protection failure. |