| Goal | Previous | Current | Context |
|---|
| Destroy fixed missile launch sites | in progress | in progress | IDF: 300+ launchers destroyed (IDF Hebrew tweet, Mar 5). 113 IDF strike waves completed. ~200 targets hit in western/central Iran in single broad wave. UAE BM data: 137→28→9→12→3→7→(D7 TBD). Iran→Israel attack waves: 148 total (D1:25, D2:64, D3:25, D4:9, D5:11, D6:9, D7:5 through noon). Kish Island radars struck (Vahid OSINT — radar + maritime watchtower). Parchin military-industrial complex struck evening Mar 5. 90%+ Gulf interception rates holding. |
| Degrade regime's internal repression capability | in progress | in progress | IDF + US SYSTEMATICALLY HITTING INTERNAL SECURITY: Shahriar police command HQ struck (IranIntl video). Fardis Basij base in Alborz province destroyed (IranIntl). Robat Karim police station #11 struck (hey_itsmyturn OSINT). IDF broad waves targeting IRGC services and internal security force HQs in southeastern Tehran. Systematic degradation of regime's repression apparatus expanding to suburban police/basij infrastructure. But 120hr+ internet blackout also prevents organizing opposition. Degrading repression AND communication simultaneously. |
| Sink Iranian warships | achieved | achieved | 30+ SHIPS DESTROYED: CENTCOM video (Mar 5) confirms Shahid Bagheri drone carrier (40,000-ton converted container ship, commissioned Feb 2025) sunk in opening hours. 11 naval vessels destroyed in initial phase including IRIS Jamaran, IRIS Dena (torpedoed off Sri Lanka — 100+ missing, 87 bodies recovered). Soleimani-class corvette IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi struck at Bandar Abbas. IRIS Bushehr interned by Sri Lanka (first warship internment since WWII). Hegseth: 'quiet death' — first US torpedo kill since WWII. Cooper: 'Today they have ZERO.' Iran's conventional navy effectively annihilated. |
| Keep Hormuz open during operations | at risk failing | at risk failing | WARLIKE OPS AREA + TUG CREW KILLED: Upgraded from 'high risk' — triggers crew right of refusal. UKMTO: tugboat Mussafah 2 hit by 2 missiles while assisting abandoned containership near Oman — all ~8 crew believed killed. IRGC hit US tanker. Kuwait tanker explosion. Oman storage hit. P&I insurance removed. 150+ ships stalled. Macron building European naval coalition. But escort not operational. China in talks with Iran for safe oil/gas passage (JPost) — potential parallel Hormuz regime emerging. IRGC: 'no shipping linked to US, Israel, or European supporters will pass.' |
| Neutralize Hezbollah | in progress expanding | in progress expanding | GAZA TEMPLATE: IDF ordered evacuation of nearly ALL of southern Beirut — 500,000+ people. Previous orders targeted single buildings; this covers entire neighborhoods. Smotrich: 'Dahieh will look like Khan Younis' (city flattened in Gaza). IRGC Quds Force officers still fleeing Lebanon (Axios). Radwan deployed but IRGC advisory network hollowing out. Lebanon: 123 dead, 600+ wounded (Lebanese Health Ministry), 95,000+ displaced. 26th IDF strike wave on Beirut, 500+ targets in northern campaign. 116 total Hezbollah attack waves, 23 in past 24 hours (16 rockets, 7 UAVs). 10 IDF soldiers wounded from anti-tank/indirect fire. This is no longer a targeted campaign — it's a planned urban destruction operation. |
| Minimize Israeli Civilian Casualties | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | 12 civilians dead, 1,600+ injured (Alma Center data). 148 Iranian attack waves since Day 1 (D1:25, D2:64, D3:25, D4:9, D5:11, D6:9, D7:5 through noon). Attack waves declining but Hezbollah expanding to Tel Aviv = new threat axis. Beit Shemesh synagogue (9 dead) worst single incident. Haifa refinery hit. Defense systems working but cumulative strain visible — 1,600+ injuries in 7 days. 140 injured in past 24 hours alone. |
| Prevent Chinese military support to Iran | in progress | in progress | MOVING BEYOND RHETORICAL: HQ-9B destroyed = humiliation. 1 Chinese citizen killed = leverage. NEW: JPost reports China in talks with Iran for safe oil/gas passage through Hormuz — energy-focused, not military, but signals deepening economic alignment. US Treasury issued 30-day waiver for Indian refineries to buy Russian oil — pressure valve suggesting US aware of energy alliance risks. No Chinese weapons to Iran yet. Watch: arms resupply, intel sharing (Russia already providing), energy guarantees. |
| Prevent Russian military support to Iran | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | INTELLIGENCE SHARING CONFIRMED: WaPo (Mar 6): Russia providing Iran real-time intelligence on US warship and aircraft locations — 'pretty comprehensive effort' per US official. Not weapons yet, but targeting data. Iran has few military satellites; Russian data filling critical ISR gap. May explain accuracy of some Iranian strikes (Riyadh embassy, early warning radars). Moscow publicly calls strikes 'unprovoked aggression' while covertly enabling Iranian targeting. Peskov: Iran has NOT requested weapons. But intelligence cooperation = de facto co-belligerence. Key escalation threshold: weapons resupply request if missile stocks (down 90%) run dry. |
| Keep oil below $100/barrel | at risk expanding | at risk expanding | SURGING: Oil up ~20% in a week to ~$80/barrel (NPR). Brent volatile, intraday spikes to $82+. 10 tankers burning at Hormuz. Strait = warlike ops area. Backchannel bounce faded. KOSPI crashed ~12% (worst day ever). Gold above $5,100. US Treasury issued 30-day waiver for Indian refineries to buy Russian oil — acknowledging supply crisis. Trump won't tap SPR. Supertanker rates at all-time record. Markets no longer pricing best case. |